Three services.
Published prices.
Theory Intelligence is an independent research and advisory firm. We answer business questions and support decisions with evidence we have verified ourselves: people we have interviewed and checked, records we have opened and read, data we have tested. The work comes in three fixed-scope formats, the Signal Brief (USD 7,500 to 12,000), the Decision Study (USD 25,000 to 75,000) and the Intelligence Retainer (USD 6,000 to 15,000 a month), each delivered under The Theory Standard with a provenance appendix and a signed recommendation.
Signal Brief
USD 7,500 to 12,000One question. Ten business days. A signed two-page answer built on evidence we have verified ourselves, with a provenance appendix.
- One question, agreed in writing
- Typically 6 to 8 verified sources: people, records, data
- Signed two-page answer with a confidence level
- 10 business days, fixed fee
Decision Study
USD 25,000 to 75,000One consequential decision. A full evidence base, a written report, a signed recommendation and a working session with your team.
- One decision, up to three sub-questions
- Typically 15 to 30 verified sources plus document and data review
- Signed report and half-day working session
- 4 to 6 weeks, fixed fee
Intelligence Retainer
USD 6,000 to 15,000 per monthStanding coverage of a market, a set of counterparties or a risk. A signed monthly briefing, a named researcher, and urgent questions answered in days.
- Standing brief, reviewed quarterly
- Signed monthly briefing with provenance appendix
- Named lead researcher, reachable directly
- Urgent questions answered in 1 to 5 business days
What we do
Four steps, the same for every engagement. The formats below differ in scale and time, not in method.
A question you need settled
Is this market growing? Will this rule pass? Is this supplier sound? Why are we losing deals? Is the investment case true? You bring the decision; we turn it into a question that evidence can answer.
Evidence we have verified ourselves
People we have interviewed and checked. Records we have opened and read: filings, registries, court and enforcement records, contracts, press. Data we have tested for origin and method. Nothing is taken on trust.
With methods we show you
Structured techniques from intelligence practice: assumptions checks, competing hypotheses, scenarios with stated probabilities, red teams. The reasoning is on the page, not behind it.
A judgement someone stands behind
A named researcher writes the recommendation, states the confidence behind it and names what would change it. A provenance appendix lets you trace every claim to its source.
Where the evidence comes from
Three kinds of evidence, each verified before it is used. The mix depends on the question and is agreed with you at scoping.
People
Practitioners with direct, recent knowledge: customers, former employees, distributors, suppliers, former officials, competitors' customers, in-country operators. Identity and role verified before the conversation. Recorded with consent. Quoted verbatim.
Records
Public and private documents: company filings, registries, litigation, sanctions and enforcement lists, regulatory dockets, contracts, board papers, press. Every document is opened and read by a person, and the passage relied on is recorded.
Data
Market data, transaction data, your own data where you share it, and published statistics. Every figure is traced to its origin and its method before it is used. No number appears that we cannot show you the source of.
| Service | Built for | Evidence base | Time | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Signal Brief | One question that is holding up a near-term decision | Typically 6 to 8 verified sources: people, records, data | 10 business days | 7,500 to 12,000 |
| Decision Study | One consequential decision: acquisition, entry, exposure, policy shift, major contract | Typically 15 to 30 verified sources plus full document and data review | 4 to 6 weeks | 25,000 to 75,000 |
| Intelligence Retainer | A standing read on a market, a set of counterparties or a risk | 6 to 10 verified sources a month plus records and data as they appear | Monthly, 6-month minimum | 6,000 to 15,000 a month |
Which one
| If your situation is | Start with |
|---|---|
| One factual question is still open before a board, committee or signature | Signal Brief |
| You need a fast, verified read on something that just happened | Signal Brief, or the ad-hoc route for retainer clients |
| You are about to acquire, invest, enter a market or sign a contract worth more than USD 1 million | Decision Study |
| A plan or thesis needs to be tested by someone with no stake in it | Signal Brief for one thesis, Decision Study for a major decision |
| The same market, counterparties or risks need watching month after month | Intelligence Retainer |
| You are not sure | Write to info@theoryintel.com. A researcher replies within one business day, including if the answer is that you do not need us. |
Questions about services and pricing
What exactly does Theory Intelligence do?
We are an independent research and advisory firm. You bring a business question or a decision. We gather evidence we have verified ourselves, from people, records and data, analyse it with methods we show you, and deliver a signed judgement with a provenance appendix. The work is sold in three fixed-price formats.
Is every engagement built on interviews?
No. Interviews are one of three kinds of evidence. Some questions, such as a counterparty's record or a regulation's path, are answered mainly from documents and data. Others, such as why customers leave, are answered mainly from people. Most engagements use all three. We tell you the mix at scoping.
Why are your prices published?
Because a fixed price with a fixed scope is the only honest way to sell research while AI is changing what it costs to produce. You know what you will pay before you start, and the efficiency we gain is not hidden margin.
What is included in every service?
Verified sources, a signed recommendation with a stated confidence level, a provenance appendix, a written AI use disclosure and a working session with the lead researcher. These are the terms of The Theory Standard.
Where does the price land within the range?
How hard the evidence is to get. Reaching eight verified chief actuaries, or assembling the litigation record of a private company across three jurisdictions, costs more than eight verified software buyers. We quote a fixed figure once we have seen the question.
Can you work outside these three formats?
Occasionally, for existing clients. New relationships start with a Signal Brief so that both sides can test the fit at a small, fixed price.
Send the question
We reply within one business day with a scope, a fixed price and a start date. info@theoryintel.com.
Start a brief