Alternative analysis
before you commit

Why plans fail in predictable ways

Most consequential decisions are made by teams that have already decided. The memo is written to support the conclusion, dissent is filtered before it reaches the committee, and the assumptions that matter most are the ones nobody wrote down because everyone shared them. Intelligence agencies learned this the hard way and built structured techniques to counter it. Theory applies the same techniques to commercial decisions, with one addition: where the argument turns on a fact, we go and check the fact with verified people.

The techniques

A key assumptions check lists what the plan takes for granted, rates each assumption for how well supported it is and how much depends on it, and sends the weakest to be tested. Analysis of competing hypotheses sets the preferred explanation alongside the plausible alternatives and scores the evidence against each, which tends to reveal that the evidence is consistent with more than one story. A red team argues the opposing case as well as it can be argued, using the same evidence and interviewing people who hold the opposing view. A pre-mortem assumes the plan has failed and works backwards to the most likely causes. A what-if takes a low-probability event and traces its consequences. We choose the combination that fits the decision and the time available.

Deliverables

A Signal Brief runs a key assumptions check or a red team on one thesis: six to eight verified interviews with people who can test the weakest assumptions, a signed two-page report on where the case is exposed, and a provenance appendix. A Decision Study runs a full alternative analysis of a major decision: competing hypotheses, red team, pre-mortem and scenarios, fifteen to thirty interviews, a written report and a working session in which we present the opposing case to the decision makers. An Intelligence Retainer gives a leadership team or investment committee a standing challenge function that reviews each major decision before it is made.

When to use it

Before an investment committee approves a thesis, alongside due diligence. Before a strategy is presented to a board. Before a market entry, a pricing change or a major contract. After a surprise, to understand what the previous analysis missed. And whenever a team has been working on a plan for long enough that nobody left in the room disagrees with it. It pairs naturally with risk analysis, which asks what could go wrong; alternative analysis asks what you might be wrong about.

All work is delivered under The Theory Standard. See services and prices.