Risk analysis
with named sources

A register is not an analysis

Most risk work produces a spreadsheet: a long list of things that could go wrong, each with a colour. The list is usually assembled from inside the organisation, by people who share its assumptions, and it tends to be strongest on the risks that have already happened. What it cannot tell you is which three items matter, how you would know one was starting, and what people outside the building think is about to go wrong.

Theory does risk analysis from the outside in. We start from the decision or asset at stake, ask verified people who have watched similar situations fail what actually went wrong and how early it showed, check the documents, and write down a short, ranked judgement with the reasoning visible.

Method

We identify risks from three directions: the client's own view, the public record of comparable situations, and interviews with people who have direct experience of the market, counterparty or operation in question. Each candidate risk is then assessed for likelihood and severity using defined terms, so that "likely" means the same thing on every page, and each judgement carries a confidence level and the evidence behind it. For the risks that rank highest we name the indicators: the observable events that would tell you the risk is materialising, and where you would see them first. Where useful we run a short alternative analysis on the client's own assumptions, since the largest risk is often the one the plan takes for granted.

Deliverables

A Signal Brief covers one decision: six to eight verified interviews, a signed two-page assessment naming the risks that matter and the indicators to watch, and a provenance appendix. A Decision Study covers a major commitment such as an acquisition, a new market or a large contract: fifteen to thirty interviews, a full written assessment, scenario notes, and a working session with the people who own the decision. An Intelligence Retainer keeps the indicators under watch and reports monthly, with an early warning between reports when something moves.

Where it is used

Before an investment or acquisition, alongside due diligence. Before entering a market or launching a product. When a supplier, distributor or partner becomes critical, which is where it overlaps with third-party risk. When a country or region becomes uncertain, where it becomes geopolitical risk analysis. And when a board wants an independent view of what management's plan assumes will not happen.

All work is delivered under The Theory Standard. See services and prices.