Policy analysis
for the decision it affects
Policy analysis examines how legislation, regulation, public procurement and government programmes will affect a market, a company or an investment, including what is likely to pass, in what form, on what timetable, and who gains and loses. Theory Intelligence does not lobby; it researches, with verified interviews with former officials, regulatory staff, trade bodies and affected operators, checked against the documents, and a signed judgement on what to expect.
- Signal Brief: one measure, one market, 6 to 8 verified sources, 10 business days, USD 7,500 to 12,000
- Decision Study: a regulatory shift that changes a business model or an investment case, 15 to 30 sources, 4 to 6 weeks, USD 25,000 to 75,000
- Standing regulatory watch for a sector or jurisdiction through the Intelligence Retainer
- Sources: former officials and regulators, legislative staff, trade association staff, compliance heads and operators, all verified
- Research only: we do not lobby, advocate or represent you to government
The question is rarely what the law says
The text of a bill or a rule is public. What a company needs to know is whether it will pass, in what form, when it will bite, how it will be enforced in practice, who will be exempted, and how customers and competitors will respond. Those answers live with the people who wrote comparable measures, the staff who will implement this one, the trade bodies negotiating the detail and the operators who will have to comply. Theory finds them, verifies them, and asks.
What we do
We map the measure: its stage, its sponsors and opponents, its dependencies, the calendar that governs it and the precedents that suggest how it will end up. We then interview verified people on each side of it, including former officials who understand how the agency actually behaves, legislative or ministerial staff where access is appropriate and lawful, trade association staff, compliance heads at affected companies and the operators whose business will change. Every interview is recorded with consent and every claim about the process is checked against the record. The result is a judgement about outcome, timing and effect, stated in defined probability terms with the confidence behind it.
We are researchers, not lobbyists. We do not contact officials on your behalf, advocate a position or represent you to government. Where a source is a current official, we speak to them only in a capacity and manner that is lawful and appropriate, and we record it.
Deliverables
A Signal Brief takes one measure and one market: six to eight verified interviews, a signed two-page judgement on outcome, timing and effect, and a provenance appendix. A Decision Study takes a regulatory shift that changes a business model or an investment case, such as a new licensing regime, a price control or a procurement reform: fifteen to thirty interviews, a full written assessment with scenarios, a signed recommendation and a working session with the leadership or deal team. An Intelligence Retainer provides a standing regulatory watch for a sector or jurisdiction, with a signed monthly briefing and an early call when a measure moves.
Where it is used
Before investing in a regulated sector, alongside due diligence. Before a market entry that depends on a licence or a subsidy. When a proposed rule threatens or creates a business model. When a board wants an independent view on what a government programme will actually deliver. And in cross-border work, where it meets geopolitical risk analysis.
All work is delivered under The Theory Standard. See services and prices.
Questions about policy analysis
Do you lobby or represent clients to government?
No. We research and assess. If you need advocacy, we can work alongside your public affairs advisers, and our report is written so they can use it.
Which jurisdictions do you cover?
We scope each request on whether we can recruit and verify credible sources in the timetable. We take on the work where we can and say so where we cannot.
How do you handle current officials as sources?
Carefully and lawfully. Most policy work relies on former officials, legislative and association staff and affected operators. Where a current official is approached, it is in a capacity and manner that is appropriate, with consent, and it is recorded in the provenance appendix.
Need this answered?
Write to info@theoryintel.com with the decision. A researcher replies within one business day with a fixed price and a start date.
Start a brief