Geopolitical risk
for a specific exposure
Geopolitical risk analysis assesses how political events between and within states, including sanctions, tariffs, export controls, elections, unrest, conflict and changes of government, could affect a specific investment, supply chain or market position. Theory Intelligence does it for a named exposure rather than as general commentary, using verified interviews with in-country operators, former officials and specialists alongside checked documents, and signs the assessment.
- Signal Brief: one exposure, one question, 6 to 8 verified sources, 10 business days, USD 7,500 to 12,000
- Decision Study: a market entry, a cross-border acquisition or a supply chain footprint, 15 to 30 sources, 4 to 6 weeks, USD 25,000 to 75,000
- Standing country or region watch with defined indicators through the Intelligence Retainer
- Sources: in-country operators, former officials and diplomats, trade and sanctions specialists, local counterparties, all verified
- Scenarios with stated probabilities and the indicators that would move them
Commentary is not analysis
There is no shortage of geopolitical opinion. What a company or investor needs is different: a judgement about how a specific set of political possibilities would affect a specific plant, contract, licence, supply route or investment, with the reasoning shown and the probabilities stated. A note that a country is "high risk" does not tell a chief financial officer whether to sign a ten-year offtake agreement there.
Theory starts from the exposure. We write down what you own, sell, source or plan in the place concerned, and which political events would change its value. Then we go and find people who know: operators who run businesses there now, former officials who understand how decisions are actually made, specialists in sanctions, trade and export controls, and the local counterparties whose behaviour is part of the risk.
What we assess
Sanctions and export control exposure, including the likelihood of new designations and how enforcement is actually applied. Trade policy: tariffs, quotas, local content rules and their direction of travel. Political stability: elections, succession, unrest and the capacity of institutions to absorb them. Expropriation, licence and contract risk: the record of the state and its agencies toward foreign operators in your sector. Conflict and security: the direct risk to people and assets and the indirect risk to logistics, insurance and finance. For each, we set out two or three scenarios, assign probabilities in defined terms, and name the indicators that would move them.
Deliverables
A Signal Brief answers one question about one exposure: six to eight verified interviews, a signed two-page assessment and a provenance appendix, in ten business days. A Decision Study supports a market entry, a cross-border acquisition or a supply chain footprint decision: fifteen to thirty interviews, a full written assessment with scenarios and indicators, and a working session with the decision owners. An Intelligence Retainer keeps a country or region under watch, with six to ten verified interviews a month, a signed monthly briefing, and a call between briefings when an indicator moves.
How it connects
Geopolitical work rarely stands alone. It feeds market entry research when the market is in a difficult jurisdiction, third-party risk when the third party is abroad, policy analysis when the political question is about a specific law or programme, and due diligence when the target has exposure the seller would rather not discuss.
All work is delivered under The Theory Standard. See services and prices.
Questions about geopolitical risk
Do you cover any country?
We scope each request honestly. Where we can recruit and verify credible in-country sources within the timetable, we take it on. Where we cannot, we say so before you commit rather than delivering desk research dressed as fieldwork.
How do you verify sources in difficult jurisdictions?
Through the same standard as everywhere else: role and identity confirmed against independent records, with the method logged in the provenance appendix. Where a source must remain unnamed for safety, the appendix records the verification while withholding the name, and we tell you that is the case.
Do you forecast?
We give scenarios with stated probabilities and the indicators that would change them, and we say how confident we are. We do not pretend to certainty about political events, and we revisit the judgement when the indicators move.
Need this answered?
Write to info@theoryintel.com with the decision. A researcher replies within one business day with a fixed price and a start date.
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